Last week Andrew from DomainNameWire asked in a blog post “Whats The Market Size For A Top Level Domain”. The post basically asked where are the new gTLD’s going to get their registrants from, so I thought I would join the conversation.
Here is where I see registrations for new gTLD’s coming from:
Yes I know existing domainers think all new gTLD’s are crap and will all wind up like .mobi domains from an investment standpoint and that .com is king and always will be.
Having said that being a domainer since 1997 and having daily interactions with domains on TheDomains.com for soon to be 7 years, I can say when domainers see new opportunities, they are going to jump in.
Obviously not in every extension and not with the dollars that were in the market a few years ago, but when extensions like .NYC or .Web and a few hundred more come around and they see a really good name sitting their for a $20 registration fee they are going to grab it.
Despite the noise, domainers are going to play in the new gTLD space.
The new gTLD’s with the unprecedented marketing that’s going to hit the online and offline media is going to create another wave of domain investors.
Of course there are tens of million of people that “missed” the huge play in domains from the mid 90’s and after the .com bubble to 2005.
Tens of millions of people either didn’t get the value of domains and passed on domaining the 1st time, were too young and missed it, were in developing countries which didn’t have internet access at the time.
There are plenty of people that will look as new gTLD’s as the next gold rush rightly or wrongly and will be playing
For the first time cities are going to get their own TLD’s. Cities like NYC, Miami, Boston, London, Paris, Berlin, Brussels to name a few, live and work in their city and as they root for their sports team and otherwise “represent” their city, people will be registering domain names so they can feel like the have a stake in the community and will take advantage of having an online presence associated with their home town.
There is no doubt there will be a LOT of defensive registrations. The amount and percentage of total registration is going to vary greatly by the extension.
.Sucks certainly will have a huge amount of defensive registrations (if its overcomes GAC advice).
When people chat about defensive registrations they usually are talking about large corporations protecting their trademark and while these companies will be engaging in a lot of defensive registrations a lot of small companies, businesses and people will be doing defensive registrations as well.
For example I would be crazy not to register theDomains.blog, berkens.blog, thedomains.sucks, those are defensive registrations.
I’m not going to do hundreds of these but i’ll probably have 10 or so.
That is one person, one blog.
If you owned a business in New York wouldn’t you register you name.NYC.
There are some 252 million domain names registered as of the last report even if 1% of those domain owners opt for a defensive registration its over 2,000,000 registrations, however I would say that if anyone is aware, concerned or protective or their name, business, company or website to register a defensive domain they will do more than 1.
You see it all the time that companies upgrade their domain or rebrand to a better more relevant or brandable domain
Here are the extensions I think you can see some bleeding over to the new gTLD’s:
There are over 15 Million .net domain names.
Pretty much because it was one of three original TLD’s and people used it for a default when their .com choice was taken, but what will .net mean in a world of 1,000 new extensions?
I expect a lot of bleeding from .net.
I think you will also see a lot of movement away from some ccTLD’s that do not rank on Google outside of the sponsoring country.
Unless you restricting your business to only having customers inside the country of residence then there really no reason to use a ccTLD, since Google does not include your ccTLD site to searches from outside your country.
New gTLD’s will have the opportunity to rank worldwide, something that very few ccTLD’s do.
Long tail .com’s
If you have a crappy or long .com you might be better off registering a shorter more on point domain name.
Unexplainable, Horrible, Pigeon, Shit Registrations
If you have ever gone through a drop list of .com’s or even a ccTLD like a .me you will find a ton of unexplainable, horrible domains, typo’s, misspells, domain names that simply don’t seem to have any meaning whatsoever but people register them. These types of domains were broadly classified as Pigeon Shit by Domain Rick Schwartz.
Here are some dropping domains from the .me registry from Godaddy:
You get the idea.
There will be these type of unexplainable registrations that will come in all extensions of course varying in quantity by the TLD. While we can’t explain why these types of domains are registered, they are and the new gTLD’s will get them as well.
Growth Of the Domain Name Space
So lets say there are 1 billion businesses in the world there is a potential pool of 8 billion URL (assuming just 1 per person/business) and 252 million domains registered with basically 1/2 of them being .com’s/.net’s
You can do the math.
The world is not going to get smaller, population growth is not going to stop, internet access will continue to grow around the world.
There is huge potential for growth in domains and there are not 1 billion good .com addresses available.