As we know there are over 1,900 applications still alive after several have been withdrawn for around 1,400 different strings.
Mr. Krischenowski concluded that that 521 would drop out because they are in direct contention sets and another 80 would be in indirect contention with another string (strings that are similar enough to risk causing Internet user confusion, but not identical).
He also suggests further drop out numbers:
- 40 due to successful objections;
- 20 geographic applications missing the required governmental support;
- 10 due to clashes with the country code ISO 3166 list (e.g. Google’s AND or EST applications);
- 15 failing extended evaluation;
- 24 applicants going bankrupt during the evaluation process and,
- 20 being blocked by GAC advice, i.e. governments saying they would request the ICANN Board not approve them.
Krischenowski’s “he has been heavily involved in the new gTLD program from day one and has spent years building an understanding of what motivates applicants and what constitutes likely new gTLD success or failure”.
“If he’s right, more than 700 applicants may end up not seeing the program through.”
“This would leave less than 1,200 actual new TLDs to be added to the Internet.”