A report released tonight by Minds+Machines, (pdf) predicts that the proposed gTLD’s will only cause 316 new cases of CyberSquatting and that the cost to trademark holders worldwide will be “less than $.10”.
How does the authors of the report come to that conclusion?
They look at the percentage of UDRP cases coming from .com’s, .net and .org against those in the “new” extensions, .info, .biz, .mobi, .asia and .tel.
The report does not account for the number of UDRP’s involving ccTLD’s including .Me which since its recent release has been subject to many cases.
Moreover without limiting the number of new gTLD extensions there is no way to even begin to predict the number of CyberSqautting Cases.
On the panel I sat in last week, predictions for number of new gTLD’s extension for the 1st year ranged from 100-1,500.
Before you dismiss the prediction of 1,500 new gTLD’s that was made by the member of the panel that sits on the ICANN committee for the new gTLD’s.
If the number of new extensions are so unpredictable then the number of cases coming from them are impossible to predict.
If there were only 300 new extensions that means there would only be 1 UDRP per extension?
Even .tel has had 5 UDRP by the author’s count.
If each new extension only got 5 UDRP’s and the upper end of the range of new gTLD’s predicted by the panel were reached, your looking at 7,500 new cases.
I understand the authors are trying to combat trademark groups warnings of a flood of new cybersqautting cases if the new gTLD’s are released but I don’t think this report is going to convince many that hundreds or thousands of new extensions are going to result in a minimal amount of new cases.
Trying to cost average of what the authors call a $5,000 cost for a UDRP, (or even a lower cost if the URS is adopted) amongst every trademark throughout the world or the US is just silly.
If you have to pursue one of these its going to cost you a few thousand per case.
What that $5K averages down to amongst every trademark is pretty irrelevant to those writing the checks, because no one is going to be writing a check for 10 cents.
The report also fails to mention how many C & D letters are sent out by trademark holders or the costs thereof, which result in a domain being transferred without a UDRP or the number of court cases filed by trademark holders or the costs involved with those.